Sepoy runs, Sepoy wins simple
The Age
Friday April 1, 2011
WHILE it is possible to make a case for most of the 16 runners in tomorrow's $3.5 million Golden Slipper Stakes at Rosehill, the over-riding factor that nullifies many of the arguments is simply this: SEPOY (No. 1) will run and so it is highly likely that Sepoy will win.Since his Blue Diamond Stakes romp and especially since his first defeat at his Sydney debut in the Todman Stakes two weeks ago, punters have been expecting to hear that Sepoy has been withdrawn from the Golden Slipper. Any hint that the colt was struggling to complete his long campaign would have been enough for trainer Peter Snowden to spell him.It's not the Darley way to run a colt in such a race in the hope that he is fit and well enough to cope. No stone is left unturned in the team's bid to produce horses at 100 per cent so you have to trust that this colt, who was untouchable at his first four starts, is primed to peak again in the race that matters most.A two-year-old's form can vary greatly at this time of year as some succumb to the pressure of being readied for such a race, while others thrive on it. Invariably, it is only after the race that these assessments can be made accurately, but, as many of these babies will simply not run up to their best on the day, it means there is plenty of scope for a rapid improver.While there have been many different types of two-year-olds win the Golden Slipper Stakes over the past 54 years, the one constant in the results is that, generally, a horse at big odds will find its way into the top three placings. Over the past 10 years, seven such horses at odds of $21 or better have been placed in the race.These horses were Decision Time (2nd at $26 in 2010), Phelan Ready (1st at $26 in 2090), Headway (2nd at $26 in 2009), Portillo (3rd at $21 in 2008), Pure Energy (2nd at $41 in 2006), How Funny (2nd at $26 in 2003) and Red Hannigan (3rd at $21 in 2001).Interestingly, except for How Funny, who ran fifth in the Magic Night Stakes the week before the Slipper, the others won or were placed in the Magic Night (2), Pago Pago (1), Todman (2), Reisling (1) and Sweet Embrace (1) at their previous start.Worthy of note also is that all seven horses had a minimum of five starts before they raced in the Slipper. The only horse in tomorrow's race that fits similar criteria, in that she was placed third in the Reisling at her most recent start, will be having her fifth run tomorrow is the $101 chance FAST AND SEXY (No. 14).Trained by Chris Waller, she was purchased by the Ingham family at the Magic Millions Premier Sale last year for $170,000. At her latest run, she was backed from $51 to $21 in the Reisling and finished 3.6 lengths from the winner Elite Falls, who is considered one of the best chances tomorrow. The best part of Fast And Sexy's race was her finish as she was certainly holding her ground if not taking ground off Elite Falls and Satin Shoes. She was a little green in the run home so with blinkers fitted for the first time tomorrow, she can be expected to improve.Another fact on the side of Fast And Sexy is that fillies have a fine record in the Slipper. In the six years since weights were revised, the colts and fillies share the spoils with three wins, three seconds and three thirds apiece.BETTING SUGGESTIONFollow up on Sepoy in quaddies and multiples but also have something each-way on $101 chance Fast And Sexy.THE NEXT BESTTHE George Ryder Stakes is an ideal race for a genuine group 1-class sprinter/miler three-year-old and tomorrow's race contains two of them. Although different types, both ILOVETHISCITY (Race 6, No. 14) and SKILLED (No. 15) can beat the older horses. Last year, Danleigh beat Dao Dao and King Mufhasa and that trio front-up again here. But the dynamics of this year's race are vastly different. Last year, there were no three-year-olds and the two young horses this year will ensure this race will not be a sit-and-sprint. Ilovethiscity looks the obvious winner after his last-start victory in the Randwick Guineas (1600 metres). He may have only held a small margin on the line over Skilled that day but his run was full of merit. His rider, Brenton Avdulla, was forced to ask Ilovethiscity to go early at the tight Warwick Farm track and so he raced four or five horses wide until they straightened, whereas Skilled enjoyed a lovely run back close to the rails before he peeled off Ilovethiscity's back. Worthy of note is that everywhere Ilovethiscity went last start, Retrieve tracked him, but that horse was left standing and ultimately struggling at the finish. Retrieve, of course, last week ran a game second in the Rosehill Guineas. With a devastating finish and a weight pull of 2.5 kilograms over the older horses, Ilovethiscity should prove too good. This race will also tell us whether this horse can develop into a genuine weight-for-age star by showing adaptability. Until now, Ilovethiscity has always raced near the rear and come late with a big sprint. It was interesting that he was easily the first out of the barriers in the Randwick Guineas and could have led if Avdulla had wished or been instructed. Skilled can win also, especially if Ilovethiscity finds trouble from his wide gate.BETTING SUGGESTIONBack Ilovethiscity each-way at $8 and punt on him one-out in quaddies. Save on Skilled and quinella the pair.VALLEY BESTALTHOUGH the spotlight is firmly on the five group 1 races at Rosehill tomorrow, there is nothing wrong with backing local winners. At Moonee Valley tomorrow, there is a horse that may well be racing for black type at Rosehill next year, rather than against her own age and sex.PONTIANA (Race 4, No. 2) is a daughter of Redoute's Choice and a veteran of just four starts, but is showing great promise. After a forced break from her initial campaign, which boasted two wins, she bumped into top-class filly Panipique at Flemington but was anything but disgraced when she ran home for third. Pontiana took a few strides to gather herself as Panipique forged clear, but after having a good look around as young horses often do when racing down Flemington's straight track she made ground on the winner, so the step up to 1200 metres tomorrow should be ideal.The John, Wayne and Michael Hawkes team bought the filly for $215,000 and it was notable that they returned 12 months later to pick up her full-brother for $700,000. That colt, now a two-year-old, is called Revenge and he is yet to race. The $215,000 certainly looked a bargain at the time. A brother, to be named Grand Jardin, sold in 2007 for $1.5 million but has returned about one-tenth of that in prizemoney in 18 starts. A half-brother by Encosta de Lago sold a year later for $1 million, but racing as Lake Spokane has shown little in two starts. The ability so many buyers saw in her siblings may be realised with this filly.I'm keen on Pontiana to win from BARANGAROO (No. 4), who was excellent first-up. Another filly to include is PSYCHOLOGIST (No. 1), along with the favourite LA PRALINE (No. 7).BETTING SUGGESTIONBack Pontiana to win and take in a quinella with Barangaroo. Include Psychologist and La Praline in trifectas.SOMETHING EXOTICA FEATURE meeting can't go by without a tip on a Peter Moody horse and although SET FOR FAME (Rosehill, Race 3, No. 3) probably won't win this race due to the existence of a mare called MORE JOYOUS (No. 1) she can help us snare a handy first-four dividend.Tomorrow's group 1 race at set weights for mares should be a snack for More Joyous and bookmakers are offering about $1.20. That's probably not a bad mark for a mare who's only loss in her past 12 outings was when she tried to run away from So You Think mid-race in the Cox Plate.No value at $1.20, so let's concentrate on the trifecta and first four. To make this pay, you have to find another banker behind More Joyous in the seven-horse field and Set For Fame fits that bill. She has won three group 2 races and is destined for higher honours. Over-cooked before the Oakleigh Plate, she finished down the track before unleashing a powerful finish from the rear of the field at Flemington. Now peaking, she is proven the clockwise way with a group 2 Dane Ripper Stakes win at Eagle Farm last winter when her campaign was virus interrupted. She finished three lengths from Melito at level weights in the Winter Stakes after that. Reports on her progress this campaign are most encouraging and if the $26 she opened up remains up to race time, there are some smart dividends to be had in multiples.Of the five remaining mares and fillies, there are none that are entirely hopeless even the $101 chance Happy Hippy when looking at a top-four placing. The one that picks itself is second favourite MELITO (No. 2), who lumped 59.5 kilograms to another brave third placing over this trip in the Coolmore. As with More Joyous, the set weights conditions give her a noted advantage over her lesser-credentialled rivals.BETTING SUGGESTIONTake More Joyous to win, Set For Fame for second and Melito for third and fourth around the field in first fours.
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