Forensics To Arrive At The Double
Sydney Morning Herald
Saturday March 15, 2008
THE daily double, once the value tool of the successful horse player, returns to the limelight at Rosehill Gardens today, centred around the Golden Rose, in which Forensics and other fillies must overcome a formidable hoodoo.
Melbourne Mick Bartley, the Australian equivalent of Pittsburgh Phil, made the headlines looting the Canberra jackpot but daily doubles bankrolled him into a Rolls Royce. While Pittsburgh Phil went into print with "maxims", Melbourne Mick used his expertise on a more personal basis.After getting $265,000 for his share of the Canberra Jackpot in 1971, Melbourne Mick won an Opera House lottery, $200,000, but over his great punting years the daily double was more lucrative. "All I do is study value," was his catchcry, which can be interpreted as getting longer odds about a horse than it should be. The daily doubles provided them, particularly when the off-course tote was just starting to flourish, and before the mishmash of exotics came in, diluting the pools.Now, in an endeavour to inject new life, Tabcorp has introduced a "Golden Daily Double" today with no commission rate, and the second leg, the Golden Rose, is the feature race on the program.The group 2 Golden Rose, launched in 2003, has been dominated by colts and geldings, with the weaker gender placed only once. However, fillies have a strong representation this year in Forensics, Mimi Lebrock and Vecchia Roma.They are up against promising, if not foolproof, colts and geldings. El Cambio, trained by Peter Snowden and a stablemate of Forensics', is well handicapped and drawn in three to beat Triple Honour (eight). Cent Per Cent has looked good winning his past three but launches from 12 and two of his successes have been in the wet. Kingda Ka should have beaten El Cambio at Randwick last time out so there isn't much between them on paper, but he starts from 10.Forensics, the Golden Slipper winner, drew the extreme outside, 13, but it could work for her considering anticipated speed inside from Kingda Ka and Triple Honour with Mimi Lebrock pushing up. Perhaps Vecchia Roma is the horse to beat. Mimi Lebrock, on her best, is another major contender but struck severe interference last start. When a chiropractor manipulated her back into place, the sound was resounding, according to John Thompson, stable foreman for Bart Cummings. Maybe she has recovered, maybe not.VERDICT: Forensics: from last down the outside, and the banker in the second leg of the daily double.DARE OR TRUTH: Double Dare has the figures for the Michael Hansell Signs Handicap, the first leg of the golden double. Not that Melbourne Mick was a form student. Possibly form was just too exposed for his liking. Double Dare, now a six-year-old, is resuming after a spell and from six previous campaigns has won three and been placed twice first-up. With Mitchell Beadman's three-kilo claim, the gelding, a backmarker, is nicely placed in a race in which pace should be abundant. Big Joker, though, is more of a Melbourne Mick horse: the form sheet doesn't tell the full story. Before a recent Moonee Valley failure on a circuit that didn't suit him, he was beaten at Rosehill, Hawkesbury and Doomben following three wins. At Rosehill, he "blundered in the straight", at Hawkesbury was "most unlucky", and at Doomben "blocked for a run".VERDICT: Double Dare on top but couple him and Big Joker in the double with Forensics.READY SET GO: Promising stayer Sir James, in the opening race at Rosehill, will be out to stage a form reversal, the type of situation that made Melbourne Mick wary. Only last Saturday, Sir James, with Dan Nikolic up, was an unsteady favourite at $2.40 and was a 3.4-length seventh to Nuclear Sky over 1900 metres. Nikolic was criticised for having him in front. Usually, like most Cummings stayers, Sir James gets back in the field. Nikolic has been replaced by Glyn Schofield.Other major contenders are Come On Cugat, Ready To Lift and Play Me, which will have the assistance of blinkers.VERDICT: Ready To Lift.SPEED BATTLE: Well before speed maps, Melbourne Mick had a good idea of where horses would be in the running and no doubt figured Xaardante engaged in suicidal up-front tactics last start with Keen Commander. In today's Fireball Quality, it would be kinder to him to get a sit behind the leaders because there should be speed galore. Rapid Jacko went fast at his past two runs, while Aggie Grey, Fantene and Red Con also like to lead.VERDICT: Xaardante.DREAM ON: Amelia's Dream, the hot favourite in the Silver Slipper Stakes, isn't at a Melbourne Mick kind of price. The expression "any odds about a winner" is often babbled in punting circles but Melbourne Mick didn't make his pile out of odds-on chances. Amelia's Dream won under lights in the wet like a world-beater but against moderates. Still, her figures were good. Glowlamp is being touted as a chance but if you take any notice of barrier trials, Amelia's Dream has the wood on her going on their clash in a Rosehill heat on February 12. Rock Me Baby did well for a second to Portillo over Randwick 1100m on March 1.VERDICT: Try the exacta: Amelia's Dream and Rock Me Baby.
© 2008 Sydney Morning Herald
